The so-called "12-day war" last month reveals a troubling mix of overblown claims, fiscal recklessness, and strategic failure. The conflict, sparked by Israeli strikes on June 13th and culminating in US Operation Midnight Hammer on June 22nd, targeted three key Iranian nuclear sites, Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
In retaliation, Iran launched a missile attack on the US’ Al Udeid Air Base in Quatar, completely destroying a radome that housed a $15M Modernized Enterprise Terminal (MET), a secure communications system built in 2016.
The first strike bombing took many by surprise as US-Iran nuclear talks were scheduled to take place in Oman on June 15th, but Iran cancelled after being bombed by Israel. Then, on June 19th Trump announced, through his press secretary, “Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks.” This after Israel had asked the US “to join war with Iran”. The War Powers Resolution of 1973 allows a president to use military force for up to 60 days without congressional approval, provided they notify Congress within 48 hours.
The revelation that the US had been secretly designing bombs just to target Iran's Fordow nuclear facility for 15 years came to light through a Pentagon press briefing on June 26th. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine disclosed that the US began planning to destroy Fordow in 2009, after intelligence analysts identified the facility's construction in 2006 as a covert uranium enrichment site. The Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) initiated a classified program to develop the 30,000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), specifically engineered to penetrate the Fordow complex.
President Trump claimed these strikes “completely obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program, but evidence suggests otherwise, raising concerns about unaccounted enriched uranium and the limits of military intervention.
The whereabouts of Iran’s stockpile of 880 lbs of uranium enriched to 60% purity, enough for roughly nine nuclear weapons if further enriched to 90%, remains a mystery. Satellite imagery showed trucks at Fordow and Isfahan days before the strikes, suggesting Iran moved uranium to undisclosed locations. Iranian officials, including Mehdi Mohammadi, claimed Fordow was evacuated in advance, and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Chief Rafael Grossi noted Iran reported taking “protective measures” for its nuclear material. US intelligence, per a leaked Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report, confirms much of the stockpile was moved pre-strike, contradicting Trump’s assertion that nothing was removed. Social media posts on X from Iranian officials like Major General Mohsen Rezaei reinforce this, claiming nuclear materials were secured in secret locations.
Despite Trump’s boasts, the strikes did not eliminate Iran’s nuclear capabilities. The US used B-2 Spirit bombers with GBU-57 MOPs and Tomahawk missiles. Satellite imagery shows severe damage; craters at Fordow, flattened above-ground structures at Natanz, and debris at Isfahan, but underground facilities and centrifuges largely survived. Experts like Jeffrey Lewis and David Albright argue the strikes set back Iran’s program by only months, as intact centrifuges and expertise remain. IAEA Chief Grossi noted that power disruptions likely damaged Natanz’s centrifuges, but Iran could restart enrichment in months.
Sources reported that Israel sustained substantial damage from Iranian strikes and nearly exhausted it’s Iron Dome missile defense system, which was nowhere near as impenetrable as had been touted, leading many to speculate the ceasefire was only to buy time to re-arm. Five days after the “12 day war” ended last month the Pentagon signed off on a $510M deal to re-supply Israel with more weapons.
According to the Costs of War Project at Brown University’s Watson Institute, the US has provided at least $17.9 billion in military aid to Israel for its operations in Gaza and elsewhere just from October 7, 2023, to September 30, 2024.
Iran’s retention of enriched uranium and covert sites, like those at Turquzabad or Varamin, suggests it could rebuild quickly. With Iran suspending IAEA cooperation and threatening further enrichment, the strikes appear to have only hardened its resolve rather than curbed its ambitions. In hindsight, this unexpected US military intervention, sold as decisive, seems more like an incomplete mission that inflamed tensions while leaving America’s strategic interests vulnerable.